AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 15, 2026 20:17 UTC
#1 · Score 912

Apple's Record Rally Fuels $328 Target Certainty 苹果股价创纪录飙升,328美元目标确定

100% +91.0%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 Week of July 13 2026?


Apple shares have surged, hitting record territory and adding over $600 billion in market value since June 25. This rally, driven by traders rotating out of AI stocks, has pushed the probability of AAPL hitting $328 by July 2026 to 100%. 苹果股价自6月25日以来飙升,创下历史新高,市值增加逾6000亿美元。受交易员从AI股票抛售中转向苹果的推动,AAPL在2026年7月前触及328美元的概率升至100%。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • AAPL's record-breaking rally since June 25
  • Traders fleeing AI stock selloff into Apple
  • $600-$650 billion added to Apple's market value
  • 苹果股价自6月25日以来创纪录飙升
  • 交易员从AI股票转向苹果
  • 苹果市值增加6000-6500亿美元
This shift highlights a potential re-evaluation of tech sector leadership, with investors favoring established giants over speculative AI plays. It could signal a broader market rotation. 这一转变凸显了科技行业领导地位的潜在重新评估,投资者青睐成熟巨头而非投机性AI股。这可能预示着更广泛的市场轮动。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued capital rotation into Apple and strong product cycles will easily sustain its record valuation past $328. 资金持续流入苹果及强劲产品周期将轻松维持其创纪录估值突破328美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A reversal in AI spending sentiment or broader market correction could quickly erode Apple's recent gains. AI支出情绪逆转或市场大幅回调可能迅速侵蚀苹果近期涨幅。

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500
#2 · Score 784

Mahmood Chancellor Odds Soar Amid UK Crisis 英国政局动荡,马哈茂德任财相概率飙升

90% +77.9%

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?


The probability of Shabana Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor by 2026 surged by 77.9% to 90% following the suspected murder of former minister Ann Widdecombe. This dramatic shift reflects market speculation that the political instability could hasten a Labour government, positioning Mahmood for a top cabinet role. 在英国前大臣安·维德科姆被谋杀后,沙巴纳·马哈茂德在2026年成为英国财政大臣的概率飙升77.9%至90%。这一剧烈变化反映了市场猜测,政治不稳定可能加速工党执政,从而使马哈茂德有望担任内阁要职。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ann Widdecombe's murder signals severe political instability.
  • Counter-terrorism investigation heightens UK political crisis.
  • Increased likelihood of early general election or government change.
  • Mahmood seen as strong Chancellor candidate in future Labour government.
  • 安·维德科姆遇害预示严重政治动荡。
  • 反恐调查加剧英国政治危机。
  • 提前大选或政府更迭可能性增加。
  • 马哈茂德被视为未来工党政府财相强有力人选。
The market's reaction highlights how unforeseen political events, even indirectly related, can drastically re-evaluate leadership prospects. This indicates a heightened sensitivity to political stability and potential shifts in power. 市场反应凸显了即使间接相关的意外政治事件,也能剧烈重估领导人前景。这表明市场对政治稳定和潜在权力转移的敏感度极高。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating political instability could force an early general election, leading to a Labour victory and Mahmood's appointment as Chancellor. 政治动荡加剧可能迫使提前大选,工党获胜后马哈茂德有望被任命为财政大臣。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The direct link between Widdecombe's murder and Mahmood's Chancellorship is tenuous, and current government may stabilize or choose another Labour figure. 维德科姆遇害与马哈茂德任财相的直接关联薄弱,现政府可能稳定或工党选择其他人选。

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500
#3 · Score 660

China GDP 2026 Outlook Solidifies 中国2026年GDP展望确定

100% +65.5%

Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?


The market probability for China's Q2 2026 GDP growth to be between 4.3% and 4.6% surged to 100% following the release of Q2 2024 GDP data showing 4.3% growth. This specific data point, matching the lower bound of the prediction market range, drove the dramatic increase in certainty. 中国2026年第二季度GDP增长介于4.3%至4.6%的市场概率飙升至100%,此前公布的2024年第二季度GDP数据显示增长率为4.3%。这一与预测区间下限精确吻合的数据点,极大地提升了市场确定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • China's Q2 2024 GDP reported at 4.3%.
  • This 4.3% figure falls precisely within the market's target range.
  • Market participants project current growth trends to persist into Q2 2026.
  • 中国2024年第二季度GDP增长率为4.3%。
  • 该4.3%的数据恰好落在市场预测区间内。
  • 市场参与者预计当前增长趋势将持续至2026年第二季度。
This market reflects investor confidence in China's medium-term economic stability and growth trajectory. A sustained growth rate around 4.3% would indicate a 'new normal' for the world's second-largest economy. 该市场反映了投资者对中国中期经济稳定和增长轨迹的信心。维持在4.3%左右的增长率将预示着世界第二大经济体进入“新常态”。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 China's economy demonstrates remarkable stability, with policy interventions successfully anchoring Q2 2026 growth near the current 4.3% level. 中国经济展现出显著稳定性,政策干预成功将2026年第二季度增长锚定在当前4.3%水平附近。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unforeseen global economic shocks or domestic structural issues could push Q2 2026 GDP growth outside the 4.3%-4.6% range. 意外的全球经济冲击或国内结构性问题可能使2026年第二季度GDP增长偏离4.3%-4.6%区间。

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500
#4 · Score 548

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

74% +54.5%

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#5 · Score 533

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 Week of July 13 2026? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 Week of July 13 2026?

100% +52.9%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 Week of July 13 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#6 · Score 504

Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?

66% +50.0%

Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#7 · Score 501

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 15? Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 15?

99% +49.8%

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 15?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#8 · Score 494

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on July 15? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on July 15?

1% -49.0%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on July 15?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#9 · Score 478

Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $255 on July 15? Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $255 on July 15?

52% +47.3%

Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $255 on July 15?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#10 · Score 453

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 15? Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 15?

99% +45.0%

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 15?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#11 · Score 448

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 15? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 15?

6% -44.5%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 15?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#12 · Score 443

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 15? Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 15?

99% +44.0%

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 15?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#13 · Score 443

MSFT Up Probability Soars to 99% 微软股价7月15日上涨概率飙升

99% +44.0%

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 15?


Microsoft's 'Up' probability for July 15 surged to 99% in 24 hours, reflecting overwhelming market confidence. This dramatic shift likely stems from reinforced conviction in its core business strength and a broader tech rally. 微软7月15日股价上涨的预测概率在24小时内飙升至99%,反映出市场压倒性的信心。这一剧烈变化可能源于对其核心业务实力的强化信念以及科技股的普遍上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Reinforced AI and Azure cloud growth outlook.
  • Robust performance across the broader tech sector.
  • Increased institutional investor accumulation.
  • Anticipation of strong Q2 financial results.
  • AI与Azure云业务增长前景强化。
  • 科技板块整体表现强劲。
  • 机构投资者持续增持。
  • 市场预期第二季度财报强劲。
This extreme probability indicates market participants see almost no downside risk for MSFT in the short term, signaling strong underlying fundamentals and investor conviction. 如此高的概率表明市场参与者认为微软短期内几乎没有下行风险,预示着强劲的基本面和投资者信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained AI integration and Azure cloud dominance will continue to drive revenue growth, ensuring MSFT closes higher. 持续的AI整合和Azure云主导地位将推动营收增长,确保微软股价上涨。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 An unexpected broad market downturn or significant negative tech news could trigger a rare reversal for MSFT. 突发的市场整体回调或重大负面科技新闻可能导致微软罕见逆转。

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500
#14 · Score 418

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of July 13 2026 Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of July 13 2026

100% +41.4%

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of July 13 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#15 · Score 389

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 15? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 15?

100% +38.5%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 15?


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500
#16 · Score 362

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

58% +35.5%

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?


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500
#17 · Score 299

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 15? S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 15?

90% +29.5%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 15?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#18 · Score 283

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of July 13 2026? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of July 13 2026?

18% -28.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of July 13 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#19 · Score 264

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on July 15? Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on July 15?

80% +26.0%

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on July 15?


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500
#20 · Score 214

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1PM ET

30% -21.0%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1PM ET


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#21 · Score 213

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in July? Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in July?

37% +21.0%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in July?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#22 · Score 210

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 15? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 15?

30% -20.5%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 15?


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500
#23 · Score 203

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 in July? Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 in July?

69% +20.0%

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 in July?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#24 · Score 168

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?

44% -16.5%

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#25 · Score 158

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of July 13 2026 Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of July 13 2026

35% +15.5%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of July 13 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#26 · Score 154

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?

74% +15.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?


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500
#27 · Score 153

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $86 Week of July 13 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $86 Week of July 13 2026?

10% -15.0%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $86 Week of July 13 2026?


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Key Drivers核心驱动

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500
#28 · Score 149

Bitcoin Probability Plunges on Price Slip 比特币上涨概率骤降

36% -14.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16?


The probability of Bitcoin being up on July 16 dropped by 14.5% to 36%, primarily driven by Bitcoin slipping below $63,000 in an Asian-session leverage flush. This downward pressure was exacerbated by BitFuFu selling 184 BTC to fund mining expansion. 比特币在7月16日上涨的概率骤降14.5%至36%,主要原因是比特币在亚洲交易时段杠杆清算中跌破63,000美元。此外,BitFuFu出售184枚比特币以扩大挖矿产能,也加剧了市场下行压力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin slips below $63,000
  • BitFuFu sells 184 BTC
  • Asian-session leverage flush
  • 比特币跌破63,000美元
  • BitFuFu出售184枚比特币
  • 亚洲交易时段杠杆清算
Miner selling and price drops can signal broader market weakness, potentially leading to further liquidations and impacting investor confidence in the short term. 矿工抛售和价格下跌可能预示着更广泛的市场疲软,短期内可能导致更多清算并影响投资者信心。
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Minor liquidations and BitFuFu's remaining 1,671 BTC holdings suggest underlying resilience and potential for recovery. 少量清算和BitFuFu仍持有1,671枚比特币,表明市场具有潜在韧性和复苏空间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Persistent miner selling pressure and Bitcoin's breach of key support levels could lead to further price declines. 矿工持续抛售压力以及比特币跌破关键支撑位,可能导致价格进一步下跌。

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500
#29 · Score 135

Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19? Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19?

35% +13.1%

Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
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500
#30 · Score 125

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July

79% -12.0%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
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500
#31 · Score 75

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

44% -7.0%

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
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500
#32 · Score 59

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

5% -5.5%

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?


Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误,仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens?

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket,找出价格波动显著的市场,获取相关新闽,并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为:结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师 振写,全自动化。


Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字(如 62%) — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量(越高信号越可靠)
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场,按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后,您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件,附有完整网站链接。


🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点,供 AI 助手(Claude、GPT 等)以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具:

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察,可按 categorylang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据:/data.json · 服务发现:/.well-known/mcp.json


Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索,含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析,双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article.
从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。