AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Aug 18, 2026 17:38 UTC
#1 · Score 648

Micron $1050 Target Odds Plunge 美光1050美元目标概率暴跌

10% -64.5%

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of Micron (MU) hitting $1,050 by August 17, 2026, plummeted 64.5% to 10%. This sharp decline reflects a market re-evaluation of the stock's ability to reach the ambitious target within the rapidly approaching deadline, despite recent gains to $971.66. 美光（MU）在2026年8月17日当周达到1050美元的概率暴跌64.5%至10%。尽管股价近期上涨至971.66美元，但这一急剧下降反映了市场对该股在临近截止日期前实现这一雄心勃勃目标能力的重新评估。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Tight deadline for $1,050 target.
  • Significant remaining price gap from $971.66.
  • Re-assessment of required daily gains.
  • 1050美元目标截止日期临近。
  • 距目标价971.66美元仍有较大差距。
  • 市场重新评估所需日涨幅。
This indicates a shift in investor confidence regarding Micron's short-term growth trajectory and the feasibility of aggressive price targets. 这表明投资者对美光短期增长轨迹和激进价格目标可行性的信心发生了转变。
Vol 24h: $2,129 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued memory chip supply constraints and strong demand could drive MU past $1,050 quickly. 内存芯片供应持续紧张和强劲需求可能推动美光股价迅速突破1050美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The remaining $78.34 gap to $1,050 is too large to cover in the few remaining trading days of the week of August 17, 2026. 距离2026年8月17日当周结束仅剩数个交易日，78.34美元的涨幅难以实现。
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500
#2 · Score 638

META $560 Low Probability Soars META跌破560美元概率飙升

100% +63.4%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of Meta hitting a $560 low by August 17, 2026, surged to 100% due to a 91% Free Cash Flow (FCF) collapse and bearish technical indicators. META is currently testing $560 support at $568.91 with a bearish RSI 39. Meta股价在2026年8月17日当周触及560美元低点的概率飙升至100%，主要受自由现金流暴跌91%及看跌技术指标驱动。目前META股价为568.91美元，正在测试560美元支撑位，RSI为39，呈看跌趋势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • 91% Free Cash Flow (FCF) collapse
  • META testing $560 support at $568.91
  • Bearish RSI 39 technical indicator
  • 自由现金流（FCF）暴跌91%
  • META股价测试560美元支撑位
  • RSI 39显示看跌趋势
This indicates significant investor concern over Meta's financial health and AI investment strategy, potentially signaling a deeper valuation correction. 这表明投资者对Meta的财务健康和AI投资策略存在重大担忧，可能预示着更深层次的估值调整。
Vol 24h: $1,240 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong Q2 performance and long-term AI potential could prevent a sustained break below $560, despite short-term FCF concerns. 尽管自由现金流令人担忧，但强劲的二季度业绩和AI长期潜力可能阻止股价持续跌破560美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The severe FCF collapse and critical technical support test at $560, combined with AI monetization years away, point to a high likelihood of hitting the low. 自由现金流大幅下滑和560美元关键技术支撑位的测试，加上AI变现尚需时日，预示股价极有可能触及低点。
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500
#3 · Score 624

SPX Down Probability Soars on Geopolitical Fears 标普500上涨概率因地缘政治担忧暴跌

1% -61.9%

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 18?

The probability of the S&P 500 closing up on August 18 plummeted to 1% as U.S. stock futures trended lower. Heightened Middle East geopolitical risks, specifically fading Iran peace prospects, drove up oil prices and government bond yields. 随着美国股指期货走低，标普500指数在8月18日收涨的概率骤降至1%。中东地缘政治风险加剧，特别是伊朗和平前景的消退，推高了油价和政府债券收益率。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Fading Iran peace prospects
  • Rising oil prices near recent highs
  • Government bond yields hitting multi-year peaks
  • Worries about the US economy
  • 伊朗和平前景消退
  • 油价逼近近期高点
  • 政府债券收益率创多年新高
  • 对美国经济的担忧
Escalating geopolitical tensions and rising commodity prices can fuel inflation, potentially forcing central banks to maintain higher interest rates, impacting global economic growth. 地缘政治紧张局势升级和大宗商品价格上涨可能加剧通胀，迫使央行维持高利率，从而影响全球经济增长。
Vol 24h: $48,339 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 An unexpected de-escalation of Middle East tensions or a positive economic data surprise could trigger a market rebound. 中东局势意外缓和或经济数据出现积极惊喜，可能引发市场反弹。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued geopolitical instability, further increases in oil prices, and rising bond yields will likely keep SPX under pressure. 地缘政治持续不稳定、油价进一步上涨以及债券收益率攀升，将使标普500指数承压。
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500
#4 · Score 604

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on August 18? S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on August 18?

17% -60.0%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on August 18?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $3,134 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#5 · Score 584

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 18? S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 18?

0% -58.0%

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 18?

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Vol 24h: $19,535 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#6 · Score 558

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of August 17 2026? Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of August 17 2026?

100% +55.5%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of August 17 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $1,390 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#7 · Score 548

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of August 17 2026? Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of August 17 2026?

100% +54.4%

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $3,539 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#8 · Score 524

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 18? SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 18?

1% -51.9%

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 18?

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Vol 24h: $16,410 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#9 · Score 523

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 18? NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 18?

2% -52.0%

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 18?

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Vol 24h: $1,639 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#10 · Score 513

NVDA $220 Low by Aug 2026 Certain 英伟达2026年8月触及220美元低点几成定局

100% +50.9%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $220 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of NVIDIA hitting a $220 low by August 2026 surged to 100% following reports of Nvidia scaling back its OpenAI data-center guarantee and a valuation suggesting the stock is near fair value after its massive run. This indicates a significant shift in long-term investor outlook, suggesting potential headwinds for Nvidia's growth trajectory and a possible valuation correction. 英伟达（NVDA）在2026年8月触及220美元低点的可能性飙升至100%，此前有报道称英伟达缩减了对OpenAI数据中心的担保，且有估值表明其股价在大幅上涨后已接近公允价值。这表明投资者对英伟达长期前景的看法发生重大转变，预示其增长轨迹可能面临阻力，并可能出现估值修正。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Nvidia scales back OpenAI guarantee
  • Stock near fair value after huge run
  • Prediction of post-earnings stock fall
  • 英伟达缩减OpenAI担保
  • 股价大涨后接近公允价值
  • 预测财报后股价将下跌
This indicates a significant shift in long-term investor outlook, suggesting potential headwinds for Nvidia's growth trajectory and a possible valuation correction. 这表明投资者对英伟达长期前景的看法发生重大转变，预示其增长轨迹可能面临阻力，并可能出现估值修正。
Vol 24h: $3,603 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued AI demand and new product innovations could drive NVDA far above $220, making a dip unlikely. 持续的AI需求和新产品创新将推动英伟达股价远超220美元，使其不太可能触及低点。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Reduced commitments from key partners and current high valuation increase the likelihood of a significant correction to $220. 关键合作伙伴承诺减少及当前高估值，增加了股价大幅回调至220美元的可能性。
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500
#11 · Score 509

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

0% -50.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

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Vol 24h: $48,115 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#12 · Score 503

Over $250k committed to the Multipli public sale? Over $250k committed to the Multipli public sale?

100% +50.0%

Over $250k committed to the Multipli public sale?

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Vol 24h: $6,173 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#13 · Score 483

XRP Up or Down on August 18? XRP Up or Down on August 18?

0% -47.9%

XRP Up or Down on August 18?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $9,796 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#14 · Score 483

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 18? WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 18?

68% +48.0%

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 18?

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Vol 24h: $2,426 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#15 · Score 476

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 24? Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 24?

97% +47.2%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 24?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

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Vol 24h: $2,685 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#16 · Score 458

NFLX $80 Target Surges 奈飞股价冲刺80美元

64% +45.5%

Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of August 17 2026?

The probability of Netflix (NFLX) hitting $80 by August 17, 2026, surged by 45.5% to 64% following the company's announcement of robust advertising commitments at the 2026 Upfronts. This news drove a nearly 3% stock price increase, pushing shares above their 50-day moving average. 奈飞（NFLX）股价在2026年8月17日当周触及80美元高点的可能性飙升45.5%至64%，此前公司宣布在2026年预售会上获得强劲广告承诺。此消息推动股价上涨近3%，并突破50日均线。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Netflix's strong advertising commitments at 2026 Upfronts.
  • NFLX stock rose nearly 3%, surpassing 50-day moving average.
  • Recent stock price gain from $74.14 to $76.29 on Aug 10.
  • 奈飞在2026年预售会获强劲广告承诺。
  • NFLX股价上涨近3%，突破50日均线。
  • 8月10日股价从74.14美元升至76.29美元。
This market reflects investor confidence in Netflix's diversified revenue strategy and its ability to grow beyond subscriptions, impacting future valuation. 该市场反映了投资者对奈飞多元化营收策略的信心，及其超越订阅模式的增长潜力，影响未来估值。
Vol 24h: $1,337 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong advertising commitments and positive technical indicators suggest NFLX has momentum to briefly touch $80. 强劲广告承诺和积极技术指标预示奈飞股价有动力短暂触及80美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Other Polymarket odds indicate NFLX is more likely to settle below $80, specifically around $75-$77.50. 其他Polymarket赔率显示，奈飞股价更可能稳定在80美元以下，约75-77.50美元。
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500
#17 · Score 449

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in August? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in August?

34% -44.5%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in August?

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Vol 24h: $5,196 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#18 · Score 399

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 12PM ET Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 12PM ET

11% -39.5%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 12PM ET

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Vol 24h: $20,729 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#19 · Score 390

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?

100% +38.5%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?

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Vol 24h: $451,870 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#20 · Score 378

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of August 17 Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of August 17

100% +37.5%

Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,538 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#21 · Score 363

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of August 17 2026? Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of August 17 2026?

68% +36.0%

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of August 17 2026?

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Vol 24h: $1,242 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#22 · Score 319

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?

100% +31.4%

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?

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Vol 24h: $98,047 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 318

TSLA $340 Target Fades 特斯拉340美元目标承压

21% -31.5%

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $340 on August 18?

Tesla's probability to close above $340 on August 18 plummeted to 21% after a 31.5% drop. Despite trading at $344.35 on August 17, market participants interpreted the "modest valuation premium" and "edges above" phrasing as signals of unsustainable pricing. 尽管特斯拉股价在8月17日交易于344.35美元，但市场对其8月18日收盘价高于340美元的预测概率暴跌31.5%至21%。投资者将“估值溢价保持温和”和“勉强突破”等措辞解读为价格不可持续的信号。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • "Modest valuation premium" signals limited upside.
  • "Edges above $340" implies price fragility.
  • Anticipation of short-term price correction.
  • “估值溢价保持温和”暗示上涨空间有限。
  • “勉强突破340美元”表明价格脆弱。
  • 市场预期短期内股价将回调。
This movement reflects investor skepticism about TSLA's short-term price stability despite positive news, highlighting sensitivity to valuation signals. 这一波动反映了投资者对特斯拉短期价格稳定性的怀疑，即使有积极消息，也凸显了对估值信号的敏感性。
Vol 24h: $1,490 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 TSLA's current price of $344.35 on August 17 provides a buffer, and the end of the Sweden labor dispute removes a key overhang. 特斯拉8月17日344.35美元的当前价格提供了缓冲，瑞典劳资纠纷结束消除了关键不确定性。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The "modest valuation premium" and "edges above $340" phrasing signals a fragile price point likely to correct below $340. “估值溢价保持温和”和“勉强突破340美元”暗示价格脆弱，可能回落至340美元以下。
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#24 · Score 318

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $308 Week of August 17 2026? Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $308 Week of August 17 2026?

100% +31.4%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $308 Week of August 17 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,116 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#25 · Score 314

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $171 Week of August 1 Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $171 Week of August 1

100% +30.9%

Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $171 Week of August 17 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $51,375 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#26 · Score 218

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in August? Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in August?

26% -21.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,545 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#27 · Score 213

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $76 Week of August 17 2026? Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $76 Week of August 17 2026?

50% +21.0%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $76 Week of August 17 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $2,864 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#28 · Score 183

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026? Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?

1% -18.1%

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $846 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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#29 · Score 178

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in August? Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in August?

34% +17.5%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in August?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $698 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 159

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

31% +15.5%

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $4,247 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#31 · Score 145

Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?

75% +14.0%

Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $53,897 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#32 · Score 94

Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July? Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?

82% +9.0%

Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $5,899 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#33 · Score 48

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?

8% -4.5%

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You have no credits remaining. Add credits to continue using the API at https:/
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $1,065 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。