AI-powered prediction market intelligence AI 驱动的预测市场歸察
Jul 14, 2026 11:06 UTC
#1 · Score 533

Gold Dips Below $4,000 黄金跌破4000美元

100% +52.9%

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability surged to 100% as gold prices definitively fell below $4,000 an ounce. This decline was confirmed by reports of mining companies shedding significant value following gold's slide. 黄金价格明确跌破每盎司4000美元，导致该市场预测概率飙升至100%。金价下跌后，矿业公司价值大幅缩水，证实了这一趋势。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Gold's confirmed slide below $4,000 an ounce.
  • Renewed Middle East tensions fueling higher-for-longer rate views.
  • Significant Q2 losses for major gold mining companies.
  • 黄金价格确认跌破每盎司4000美元。
  • 中东局势紧张，强化高利率预期。
  • 主要黄金矿业公司第二季度巨额亏损。
Gold's breach of the $4,000 mark signals a significant shift in its valuation, impacting investor sentiment and the profitability of the global mining sector. 黄金跌破4000美元大关，标志着其估值发生重大转变，影响投资者情绪和全球矿业盈利能力。
Vol 24h: $2,035 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Geopolitical instability and persistent inflation could reignite safe-haven demand, pushing gold back above $4,000. 地缘政治不稳定和持续通胀可能重燃避险需求，推动金价回升至4000美元以上。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Sustained high interest rates and a strong US dollar will continue to suppress gold's appeal, keeping prices below $4,000. 持续高利率和美元走强将继续抑制黄金吸引力，使价格维持在4000美元以下。
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500
#2 · Score 527

Credible Public Sale Nears $25M Target Credible公开发售逼近2500万美元

99% +52.2%

Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?

The probability of Credible's public sale exceeding $25M committed surged to 99%, driven by a robust IPO market environment. News of James Murdoch's potential $7.5 billion gain from SpaceX and Wall Street's high fees from recent mega-mergers likely enhanced investor willingness to commit capital to public offerings. Credible公开发售承诺资金超过2500万美元的可能性飙升至99%，这得益于强劲的IPO市场环境。詹姆斯·默多克从SpaceX潜在获利75亿美元以及华尔街从近期大型并购中获得高额费用，可能增强了投资者对公开发售的承诺意愿。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • James Murdoch's $7.5B SpaceX gain.
  • Wall Street's high IPO fee revenue.
  • Enhanced investor willingness to commit capital.
  • 詹姆斯·默多克SpaceX获利75亿美元。
  • 华尔街高额IPO承销费用。
  • 投资者承诺资本意愿增强。
This indicates a highly favorable environment for companies seeking public capital, potentially signaling a broader trend of successful fundraising events. 这表明寻求公开资本的公司面临非常有利的环境，可能预示着更广泛的成功融资趋势。
Vol 24h: $84,307 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong investor demand and a booming IPO market make reaching $25M highly probable. 投资者需求强劲和IPO市场繁荣使达到2500万美元极有可能。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Unexpected market downturns or company-specific negative news could still deter commitments. 突发市场低迷或公司负面消息仍可能阻碍资金承诺。
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500
#3 · Score 510

Iran Tensions Fuel Oil Surge 伊朗局势推高油价

100% +50.4%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

WTI crude oil's probability of hitting $80 in July surged to 100% due to escalating US-Iran tensions. Renewed hostilities dim the Strait of Hormuz outlook, driving oil prices to a one-month high. WTI原油7月触及80美元的概率飙升至100%，主要受美国与伊朗之间紧张局势升级驱动。敌对行动重燃，导致霍尔木兹海峡前景不明，推动油价创下月度新高。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Escalating US-Iran hostilities
  • Strait of Hormuz supply disruption risk
  • Brent crude surpassing $80
  • 美伊敌对行动升级
  • 霍尔木兹海峡供应风险
  • 布伦特原油突破80美元
Rising oil prices directly impact global inflation and consumer costs, potentially influencing central bank monetary policy decisions. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East poses significant economic risks. 油价上涨直接影响全球通胀和消费者成本，可能左右央行货币政策。中东地缘政治不稳定带来重大经济风险。
Vol 24h: $356,547 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Further escalation of US-Iran conflict or actual supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will push WTI past $80. 美伊冲突进一步升级或霍尔木兹海峡实际供应中断将推动WTI突破80美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 De-escalation of US-Iran tensions or unexpected increase in global oil supply could prevent WTI from hitting $80. 美伊紧张局势缓和或全球原油供应意外增加可能阻止WTI触及80美元。
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500
#4 · Score 509

Bitcoin Up Probability Plummets to Zero 比特币上涨概率跌至零

0% -50.4%

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 5AM ET

Bitcoin's probability of moving up by July 14, 5 AM ET, has fallen to 0% following a significant market downturn. This was primarily driven by Bitcoin slipping below $63,000 and major miner BitFuFu selling 184 BTC. 截至7月14日早上5点，比特币上涨的概率已降至0%，主要原因是市场大幅下跌。比特币跌破63,000美元，以及矿企BitFuFu出售184枚比特币是核心驱动因素。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Bitcoin slips below $63,000
  • BitFuFu sells 184 BTC
  • Eric Trump's venture loses $600M
  • 比特币跌破63,000美元
  • 矿企BitFuFu出售184枚比特币
  • 埃里克·特朗普公司损失6亿美元
The extreme bearish sentiment reflects deep concerns over market stability and miner profitability. Continued selling pressure could signal a prolonged downturn. 极度看跌情绪反映了市场稳定性和矿工盈利能力的深层担忧。持续的抛售压力可能预示着长期低迷。
Vol 24h: $15,729 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong institutional buying or a sudden positive macro development could reverse the current downtrend. 强劲的机构买盘或突发的宏观利好消息可能逆转当前下跌趋势。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Sustained miner selling and further liquidations below key support levels will drive prices lower. 矿工持续抛售和跌破关键支撑位的进一步清算将推动价格走低。
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500
#5 · Score 500

ABNB Low $144 Certain Amid Global Tensions 爱彼迎股价确定触及144美元低点

100% +49.5%

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $144 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of Airbnb (ABNB) hitting a low of $144 by July 13, 2026, surged to 100% due to escalating geopolitical instability and concerns over the company's long-term growth sustainability. The Yemeni military's targeting of Sanaa airport runway signals a significant increase in global risk, directly impacting travel sentiment and the broader market. 爱彼迎（ABNB）股价在2026年7月13日当周触及144美元低点的可能性飙升至100%，主要受地缘政治动荡加剧及公司长期增长可持续性担忧影响。也门军方袭击萨那机场跑道，预示全球风险显著上升，直接冲击旅游业信心和整体市场。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Yemen conflict escalates, impacting global travel
  • Broader market downturn drags ABNB lower
  • Airbnb's peak growth and regulatory risk concerns
  • 也门冲突升级，影响全球旅游业
  • 大盘下行拖累爱彼迎股价走低
  • 爱彼迎增长见顶及监管风险担忧
This highlights how geopolitical events can swiftly and severely impact global travel and hospitality stocks, forcing a re-evaluation of growth prospects for industry leaders like Airbnb. 这凸显了地缘政治事件如何迅速而严重地冲击全球旅游和酒店业股票，迫使市场重新评估爱彼迎等行业领导者的增长前景。
Vol 24h: $46,490 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Escalating global conflicts and an economic slowdown will severely depress travel demand, forcing ABNB's stock price down to $144. 全球冲突升级和经济放缓将严重抑制旅游需求，迫使爱彼迎股价跌至144美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Resilient global travel demand and successful new product launches will keep ABNB's price well above the $144 threshold. 全球旅游需求韧性强劲，新产品成功推出将使爱彼迎股价远高于144美元关口。
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500
#6 · Score 451

Iran-Gulf Conflict Imminent 伊朗海湾军事行动迫近

100% +44.5%

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?

The probability of Iran military action against a Gulf State by July 9 surged to 100% following a series of direct military confrontations. Key drivers include Iran shooting down a US drone over Bandar Abbas and multiple Gulf states intercepting Iranian missiles and drones. 伊朗对海湾国家采取军事行动的概率在24小时内飙升至100%，此前发生了一系列直接军事对抗。主要驱动因素包括伊朗击落美国无人机以及多个海湾国家拦截伊朗导弹和无人机。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Iran shot down a US drone over Bandar Abbas.
  • Qatar, UAE, Bahrain intercepted Iranian missiles/drones.
  • Kuwait intercepted Iranian drones and missiles.
  • US missile strike hit Abu Musa Island.
  • 伊朗在阿巴斯港击落美国无人机。
  • 卡塔尔、阿联酋、巴林拦截伊朗导弹/无人机。
  • 科威特拦截伊朗无人机和导弹。
  • 美国导弹袭击阿布穆萨岛。
This escalating conflict threatens regional stability, global oil supplies, and could draw in major international powers, leading to a broader war. 此次冲突升级威胁地区稳定和全球石油供应，可能卷入主要国际大国，导致更广泛的战争。
Vol 24h: $670,131 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Gulf states' interceptions of Iranian missiles/drones confirm active military action by Iran against them before July 9. 海湾国家拦截伊朗导弹和无人机，证实伊朗在7月9日前已对其实施军事行动。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 A re-evaluation of the specific definition of 'military action' or the timing by July 9 could lead to a market correction. 市场可能重新评估“军事行动”定义或7月9日时限，导致概率下降。
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500
#7 · Score 377

TSLA Price Drops Below $397.50 特斯拉股价跌破397.50美元

100% +37.5%

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $397.50 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of TSLA hitting a low of $397.50 by July 13, 2026, surged to 100% as the stock's current trading price was reported at $394.16. This immediate fulfillment of the market condition, occurring well before the deadline, drove the certainty. 特斯拉股价跌至394.16美元，导致其在2026年7月13日当周触及397.50美元低点的预测市场概率飙升至100%。这一事件在截止日期前提前发生，直接促使市场达成确定性。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • TSLA's reported current price of $394.16.
  • Price falling below the $397.50 target low.
  • Market condition met, resolving the prediction.
  • 特斯拉当前股价报394.16美元。
  • 股价已低于397.50美元目标低点。
  • 市场条件已满足，预测市场已解决。
This event demonstrates how real-time stock price movements can instantly resolve long-term prediction markets, shifting probabilities to certainty. 此事件表明实时股价波动如何立即解决长期预测市场，将概率推向确定性。
Vol 24h: $736 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Tesla's future innovations, like "Lunar Colonies to be Occupied by Tesla Robots," could drive significant long-term stock recovery. 特斯拉未来创新，如“机器人月球殖民地”，有望推动股价长期复苏。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The reported 3.34% daily decline to $394.16 signals continued selling pressure and potential for further short-term price drops. 当日股价跌3.34%至394.16美元，预示持续抛售，短期或将续跌。
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500
#8 · Score 373

US-Iran Blockade Threat Fuels Oil Rally 美伊封锁威胁推高油价

43% +37.0%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of July 13 2026?

WTI crude oil's probability of hitting $85 by July 2026 surged 37% to 43% after the US announced a potential blockade of Iran's coastline, immediately driving oil prices up 9%. This significant geopolitical escalation tightens the global supply outlook. WTI原油在2026年7月达到85美元的概率飙升37%至43%，此前美国宣布可能封锁伊朗海岸线，导致油价立即上涨9%。这一重大的地缘政治升级显著收紧了全球供应前景。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US announces blockade of Iranian coastline
  • Escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions
  • Iraqi PM visits Washington for oil deals
  • 美国宣布封锁伊朗海岸线
  • 美伊地缘政治紧张局势升级
  • 伊拉克总理访美商谈石油协议
Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East directly impact global energy security, potentially leading to sustained higher oil prices and broader economic implications. 中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧直接影响全球能源安全，可能导致油价持续走高并产生更广泛的经济影响。
Vol 24h: $6,596 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained US blockade of Iran drastically cuts global supply, pushing WTI well above $85 by July 2026. 美国持续封锁伊朗将大幅削减全球供应，推动WTI在2026年7月前远超85美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Blockade proves temporary or ineffective, or global economic slowdown significantly reduces oil demand. 封锁被证明是暂时的或无效的，或全球经济放缓显著降低石油需求。
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500
#9 · Score 373

RKLB Low $78 Probability Soars to 100% RKLB触及78美元低点概率飙升至100%

100% +37.0%

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $78 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hitting a low of $78 by July 2026 surged to 100% following a 4% stock drop. Broader space sector weakness and general market concerns fueled this bearish outlook. Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) 在2026年7月前触及78美元低点的概率飙升至100%，此前其股价下跌4%。更广泛的航天板块疲软和市场普遍担忧加剧了这一看跌预期。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • RKLB's 4% stock decline (24/7 Wall St.)
  • Space sector weakness (SpaceX fall, China milestone)
  • Broader market concerns (e.g., 'Worst News for Stocks')
  • RKLB股价下跌4%（24/7华尔街）
  • 航天板块疲软（SpaceX下跌，中国里程碑）
  • 市场普遍担忧（如“50年来最差消息”）
This indicates strong market conviction that Rocket Lab will face significant valuation challenges. It reflects broader investor sentiment towards the volatile space industry. 这表明市场强烈认为Rocket Lab将面临重大估值挑战。它反映了投资者对波动性航天业的普遍情绪。
Vol 24h: $1,327 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued industry headwinds and RKLB's recent stock performance suggest further declines, ensuring it hits the $78 low. 持续的行业逆风和RKLB近期股价表现预示进一步下跌，确保其触及78美元低点。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Analyst 'bullish twist' or a swift space sector recovery could prevent RKLB from reaching the $78 low. 分析师的“看涨转折”或航天板块迅速复苏可能阻止RKLB触及78美元低点。
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500
#10 · Score 368

MSFT Low Probability Plunges 微软触底概率骤降

39% -36.5%

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of Microsoft hitting a $382.50 low by July 2026 dropped sharply by 36.5% to 39%. This shift reflects strong analyst optimism for the broader market and tech sector resilience. 微软股价在2026年7月前触及382.50美元低点的概率骤降36.5%至39%。这一变化反映出分析师对大盘和科技板块韧性的强烈乐观情绪。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Oppenheimer and Citigroup project S&P 500 to top 8,000 by 2026.
  • Barron's highlights positive market performance of key tech stocks.
  • 奥本海默、花旗预测标普500指数2026年超8000。
  • 《巴伦周刊》：英特尔、AMD等科技股表现积极。
This movement indicates increasing investor confidence in Microsoft's sustained growth and the overall health of the tech market through 2026. 这一走势表明投资者对微软持续增长以及2026年科技市场整体健康的信心增强。
Vol 24h: $664 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Unforeseen economic downturn or a significant tech sector correction could still drive MSFT shares to $382.50. 意外经济衰退或科技行业大幅回调，可能将微软股价推至382.50美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 MSFT's strong AI/cloud growth and bullish S&P 500 outlook will likely keep its price above $382.50. 微软AI/云增长强劲，标普500前景乐观，股价将高于382.50美元。
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500
#11 · Score 368

GOOGL $360 Target Probability Plunges GOOGL 360美元目标概率骤降

47% -36.5%

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hitting $360 by July 2026 significantly dropped by 36.5% to 47%. This movement was primarily driven by GOOGL's recent slight price dip to $356.06 and a lack of specific bullish catalysts in recent headlines to support a strong upward trajectory. Alphabet (GOOGL) 在2026年7月前达到360美元的概率大幅下降36.5%至47%。此次变动主要受GOOGL近期股价小幅下跌至356.06美元，以及近期新闻中缺乏具体利好催化剂以支撑强劲上涨趋势的影响。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • GOOGL's recent price dip to $356.06 (-0.31%).
  • Absence of specific bullish catalysts for GOOGL.
  • Market re-evaluating GOOGL's long-term growth.
  • GOOGL近期股价跌至356.06美元（-0.31%）。
  • 缺乏针对GOOGL的具体利好催化剂。
  • 市场重新评估GOOGL的长期增长前景。
This re-evaluation reflects shifting investor sentiment regarding Alphabet's near-term growth prospects and its ability to maintain momentum in a competitive tech landscape. 此次重新评估反映了投资者对Alphabet近期增长前景及其在竞争激烈的科技领域保持动力的看法转变。
Vol 24h: $530 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong AI innovation and continued dominance in advertising could propel GOOGL past $360. 强劲的AI创新和广告领域持续主导地位有望推动GOOGL突破360美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Increased regulatory scrutiny or slowing ad revenue growth could hinder GOOGL's ascent. 监管审查加强或广告收入增长放缓可能阻碍GOOGL股价上涨。
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500
#12 · Score 328

EWY Plunge to $177 Now Certain EWY跌至177美元已成定局

100% +32.5%

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $177 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of EWY hitting a low of $177 by July 2026 surged to 100% due to escalating geopolitical tensions. US and Iran airstrikes, coupled with Yemeni military actions targeting Iranian planes, have fueled global uncertainty and rising oil prices. EWY在2026年7月前触及177美元低点的可能性飙升至100%，主要受中东地缘政治紧张局势升级驱动。美国和伊朗的空袭，以及也门军方针对伊朗飞机的行动，加剧了全球不确定性和油价上涨。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US and Iran carry out airstrikes, increasing global risk.
  • Yemeni military targets Sanaa airport, escalating Mideast conflict.
  • Rising oil prices impact South Korea's import costs.
  • 美伊空袭行动，全球风险加剧。
  • 也门袭击萨那机场，中东冲突升级。
  • 油价上涨，影响韩国进口成本。
Heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East directly impacts global energy markets and investor confidence, posing significant headwinds for export-dependent economies like South Korea. 中东地缘政治动荡直接影响全球能源市场和投资者信心，对韩国等出口导向型经济体构成重大阻力。
Vol 24h: $1,425 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 De-escalation of US-Iran tensions could stabilize oil prices and boost global market sentiment, preventing EWY from hitting $177. 美伊紧张局势缓和，油价企稳，全球市场情绪改善，EWY或避免跌至177美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Continued Mideast conflict and sustained high oil prices will depress global growth, pushing EWY below $177. 中东冲突持续，油价高企将抑制全球增长，推动EWY跌破177美元。
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500
#13 · Score 303

Meta AI Stumbles Drive Probability Drop Meta AI受挫致股价预测大跌

42% -30.0%

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of Meta hitting $680 by July 2026 plummeted 30% to 42%, primarily driven by recent failures in its AI product launches and a broader investor flight from AI stocks. Meta disabled an AI Instagram feature after backlash and admitted its 'Muse Image' AI product failed within three days. Meta股价在2026年7月前达到680美元的可能性骤降30%至42%，主要原因是近期AI产品发布失败以及投资者普遍逃离AI股票。Meta因强烈反对而禁用了一项Instagram AI功能，并承认其“Muse Image”AI产品在三天内失败。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Meta disabled AI Instagram feature due to backlash
  • Meta's 'Muse Image' AI failed after three days
  • Traders fleeing AI selloff for Apple stocks
  • Meta因反弹禁用Instagram AI功能
  • Meta的“Muse Image”AI三天内失败
  • 交易员逃离AI抛售转向苹果
These AI product missteps damage Meta's credibility in a crucial growth area and raise concerns about its ability to monetize AI effectively. This could impact investor confidence in Meta's long-term valuation. 这些AI产品失误损害了Meta在关键增长领域的信誉，并引发对其有效实现AI商业化能力的担忧。这可能影响投资者对Meta长期估值的信心。
Vol 24h: $1,393 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Massive data center investments and continued ad revenue growth could still propel Meta towards $680 by 2026. 大规模数据中心投资和持续的广告收入增长仍可能推动Meta在2026年前达到680美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Repeated AI product failures and increasing regulatory scrutiny could hinder Meta's growth and valuation targets. AI产品屡次失败和日益严格的监管审查可能阻碍Meta的增长和估值目标。
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500
#14 · Score 219

ECB Sept 2026 Hike Odds Surge 欧央行2026年9月加息预期增

69% +21.5%

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?

The probability of an ECB 25 bps increase in September 2026 surged by 21.5% to 69%. This was primarily driven by increasing hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve, with officials like Waller suggesting higher rates are needed in the near term. 欧洲央行在2026年9月加息25个基点的可能性飙升21.5%至69%。这主要受美联储鹰派信号增强的推动，例如美联储官员沃勒暗示近期可能需要更高的利率。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Rising odds for Fed July hike
  • Fed's Waller signals higher rates
  • ECB pressured to match Fed hawkishness
  • 美联储7月加息预期上升
  • 美联储沃勒暗示需更高利率
  • 欧央行面临美联储同步压力
A September 2026 ECB hike indicates persistent inflation concerns and a prolonged period of tight monetary policy in the Eurozone, impacting economic growth and borrowing costs. 2026年9月欧洲央行加息预示欧元区通胀持续存在，货币政策将长期紧缩，影响经济增长和借贷成本。
Vol 24h: $4,937 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Persistent inflation and a hawkish Fed will compel the ECB to maintain a tighter stance, leading to a 25 bps hike in September 2026. 持续通胀和美联储鹰派立场将迫使欧洲央行在2026年9月加息25个基点。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Eurozone economic slowdown or inflation easing significantly by 2026 will remove the need for further ECB rate increases. 欧元区经济放缓或通胀缓解，欧央行2026年无需再加息。
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500
#15 · Score 214

Fed Triple Pause Odds Plummet 美联储三连暂停概率骤降

32% -21.0%

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

The probability of the Fed pausing rates for June, July, and September dropped sharply by 21% to 32%. This decline was driven by increasing expectations for a July rate hike, fueled by Fed Governor Waller's hawkish comments and new Chair Kevin Warsh's anticipated testimony. 美联储在6月、7月和9月连续三次暂停加息的概率骤降21%至32%。这一显著下降主要受市场对7月加息预期升温的推动，这得益于美联储理事沃勒的鹰派言论和新任主席凯文·沃什即将发表的证词。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Fed's Waller signaled 'higher rates needed'.
  • CNBC reported rising odds for July hike.
  • New Fed Chair Warsh's testimony awaited.
  • 美联储沃勒暗示‘近期或需更高利率’。
  • CNBC报道7月加息概率上升。
  • 新任主席沃什证词备受关注。
This shift indicates market belief in persistent inflation pressures, potentially leading to tighter monetary policy sooner than expected, impacting borrowing costs and economic growth. 这一转变表明市场认为通胀压力持续，美联储可能比预期更早收紧货币政策，影响借贷成本和经济增长。
Vol 24h: $10,804 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Future data showing rapid inflation cooling or economic slowdown could prompt the Fed to maintain a pause. 未来数据显示通胀迅速降温或经济放缓，可能促使美联储维持暂停加息。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Stronger-than-expected inflation data or continued hawkish Fed rhetoric will solidify July hike expectations. 强于预期的通胀数据或持续的鹰派言论将强化7月加息预期。
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500
#16 · Score 199

Ethereum Up Probability Surges on Ecosystem Growth 以太坊上涨概率因生态增长飙升

70% +19.5%

Ethereum Up or Down on July 14?

The probability for Ethereum to be up on July 14 has surged to 70%, driven primarily by positive developments within its ecosystem. The Ethereum-based project Pepeto reported significant exchange launch progress and secured over $10.4 million in funding. 以太坊在7月14日上涨的概率已飙升至70%，主要受其生态系统内积极发展驱动。基于以太坊的项目Pepeto报告了交易所上线进展并获得了超过1040万美元的融资。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Ethereum-based Pepeto project secures $10.4M funding.
  • Anticipation of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's non-hawkish rate decision.
  • 以太坊项目Pepeto获1040万美元融资。
  • 市场预期新任美联储主席Warsh利率决策不鹰派。
Growth in the Ethereum ecosystem, like Pepeto's funding, signals strong developer activity and investor confidence. Macroeconomic stability, influenced by Fed decisions, is crucial for risk assets like crypto. 以太坊生态系统的增长，如Pepeto的融资，预示着强大的开发者活动和投资者信心。美联储决策影响的宏观经济稳定对加密货币等风险资产至关重要。
Vol 24h: $14,863 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Continued ecosystem development and favorable macroeconomic conditions will push Ethereum higher. 生态系统持续发展和有利的宏观经济条件将推动以太坊走高。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader crypto market downturns, exemplified by Bitcoin mining losses, could drag Ethereum down. 更广泛的加密市场低迷，如比特币挖矿损失，可能拖累以太坊下跌。
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500
#17 · Score 198

NVDA $1T Drop Fuels $200 Low Bet 英伟达市值蒸发万亿，200美元低点概率升

64% +19.5%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of July 13 2026?

The probability of NVIDIA hitting a $200 low by July 13, 2026, surged by 19.5% to 64% following reports of a $1 trillion market cap decline and a "rocky patch" for chip stocks. This significant drop, reported by IndexBox on July 14, 2026, indicates severe downward pressure on NVDA shares. 英伟达在2026年7月13日当周触及200美元低点的概率飙升19.5%至64%，主要受其市值蒸发1万亿美元及芯片股整体陷入“困境”的报道影响。IndexBox于2026年7月14日报告的这一巨大跌幅，预示英伟达股价面临严重下行压力。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Nvidia's market cap declined by $1 trillion.
  • Chip stocks hit a "rocky patch" on July 13.
  • Jim Cramer "perplexed" by NVDA shares.
  • 英伟达市值蒸发1万亿美元。
  • 芯片股在7月13日遭遇“困境”。
  • 吉姆·克莱默对英伟达股价感到“困惑”。
A $1 trillion market cap decline for a tech giant like NVIDIA signals a major shift in the AI and semiconductor industry, potentially impacting broader tech valuations. 科技巨头英伟达市值蒸发1万亿美元，预示着AI和半导体行业发生重大转变，可能影响更广泛的科技股估值。
Vol 24h: $1,119 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 The reported $1 trillion market cap decline signals fundamental issues, ensuring NVDA drops below $200. 市值蒸发万亿预示根本性问题，确保英伟达跌破200美元。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 NVDA's core AI demand remains robust, leading to a swift recovery and preventing a $200 low. 英伟达核心AI需求强劲，股价迅速反弹，避免跌破200美元。
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500
#18 · Score 185

Bitcoin Range Probability Plunges 比特币区间概率骤降

4% -18.1%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 14?

The probability of Bitcoin being between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 14 dropped by 18.1% to 4%, driven by a significant market downturn and miner selling. Eric Trump's reported $600M loss in Bitcoin mining highlights the current struggles. 比特币在7月14日介于64,000至66,000美元区间的概率下降18.1%至4%，主要受市场显著下行和矿企抛售驱动。埃里克·特朗普比特币挖矿损失6亿美元，凸显当前困境。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Eric Trump's $600M Bitcoin mining loss
  • Broader crypto market downturn, $2T wiped
  • BitFuFu selling 184 BTC
  • 埃里克·特朗普挖矿损失6亿美元
  • 加密市场下行，市值蒸发2万亿
  • BitFuFu出售184枚比特币
This movement indicates a strong market consensus shifting expectations away from a stable price, reflecting broader concerns about Bitcoin's short-term trajectory. 这一变化表明市场共识正远离稳定价格预期，反映了对短期比特币走势的普遍担忧。
Vol 24h: $13,049 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 An 'Ultimate Catalyst' could still spark a rapid price boom, pushing Bitcoin into or above the $64,000-$66,000 range. 潜在的“终极催化剂”可能引发价格快速上涨，将比特币推入或超过目标区间。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 The ongoing market downturn, evidenced by Eric Trump's losses and miner sales, will keep Bitcoin well below the target range. 当前市场下行，埃里克·特朗普的损失和矿企抛售将使比特币远低于目标区间。
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500
#19 · Score 180

US-Iran Conflict Escalates, Meeting Odds Drop 美伊冲突升级，会谈概率骤降

20% -17.5%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 2026 plummeted by 17.5% to 20% following reports of direct military engagement. Recent headlines confirm US and Iran exchanged fire over the Strait of Hormuz, signaling escalating conflict rather than de-escalation. 鉴于美伊直接军事交火的报道，到2026年7月举行外交会议的可能性骤降17.5%至20%。最新头条证实美伊在霍尔木兹海峡交火，表明冲突正在升级而非缓和。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US-Iran exchange fire over Strait of Hormuz
  • Escalating 2026 conflict reported by media
  • UN chief urges end to US-Iran conflict
  • US issues Strait of Hormuz demand
  • 美伊在霍尔木兹海峡交火
  • 媒体报道2026年冲突升级
  • 联合国秘书长呼吁结束冲突
  • 美国对霍尔木兹海峡提出要求
Escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pose significant risks to global oil supplies and regional stability. The lack of diplomatic engagement increases the potential for broader military confrontation. 美伊在霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势升级对全球石油供应和地区稳定构成重大风险。缺乏外交接触增加了爆发更大规模军事冲突的可能性。
Vol 24h: $62,034 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Sustained mediation efforts by Qatar and Oman could eventually force both sides to the negotiating table to avert further escalation. 卡塔尔和阿曼持续调解，或促使双方为避免升级而谈判。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Direct military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz make a diplomatic meeting by July 2026 highly improbable. 霍尔木兹海峡的直接军事交火，使2026年7月前举行外交会议的可能性极低。
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500
#20 · Score 174

US-Iran Escalation Fuels Houthi Threat 美伊局势升级，胡塞威胁加剧

40% +17.0%

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

The probability surged by 17% to 40% as US-Iran tensions dramatically escalated with US airstrikes on an Iranian naval base and an imminent maritime blockade. President Trump's threats to attack Iran's Strait of Hormuz capabilities further signal a heightened risk of conflict. 随着美国空袭伊朗海军基地并即将实施海上封锁，美伊紧张局势急剧升级，导致胡塞武装成功袭击航运的概率飙升17%至40%。特朗普总统威胁打击伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的能力，进一步预示冲突风险升高。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • US strikes Iranian naval base with autonomous vessels.
  • Trump threatens attacks on Iran's Strait of Hormuz capabilities.
  • US to enforce maritime blockade against Iran.
  • 美军无人舰艇袭击伊朗海军基地。
  • 特朗普威胁打击伊朗霍尔木兹海峡能力。
  • 美国将对伊朗实施海上封锁。
This escalating US-Iran conflict significantly raises the risk of regional instability and disruption to global shipping. Increased Houthi activity would impact international trade routes and energy markets. 美伊冲突升级显著增加了地区不稳定和全球航运中断的风险。胡塞武装活动加剧将影响国际贸易路线和能源市场。
Vol 24h: $19,247 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 US blockade and attacks on Iran will provoke Iranian retaliation via Houthi shipping targets. 美国封锁和袭击将促使伊朗通过胡塞武装报复性袭击航运目标。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Diplomatic efforts by Qatar and Oman succeed, de-escalating US-Iran tensions and reducing Houthi incentives. 卡塔尔和阿曼的外交努力成功，缓解美伊紧张局势，降低胡塞武装行动意愿。
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500
#21 · Score 163

NVDA Probability Dips on Tech Scrutiny 英伟达概率因科技审查下跌

52% -16.0%

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in July?

NVIDIA's probability of hitting $216 in July dropped 16% to 52%, driven by broader tech stock declines and increased scrutiny on the AI trade. Recent reports highlighted a "rocky patch" for chip stocks and Jim Cramer's perplexity over NVDA's shares. 英伟达7月触及216美元的概率下跌16%至52%，主要受科技股普遍下跌和AI交易面临审查的影响。近期报道指出芯片股遭遇“坎坷”，且吉姆·克莱默对英伟达股票感到困惑。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Chip stocks hit rocky patch (Reuters)
  • Tech stocks fall as AI trade faces scrutiny (Yahoo Finance)
  • Jim Cramer perplexed by NVDA shares (Yahoo Finance)
  • 芯片股遭遇“坎坷”（路透社）
  • 科技股下跌，AI交易受审（雅虎财经）
  • 吉姆·克莱默对英伟达股票感到困惑（雅虎财经）
This movement reflects growing investor caution regarding the sustainability of the AI-driven tech rally and its impact on key players like NVIDIA. 这一变化反映了投资者对AI驱动的科技股涨势可持续性的担忧，及其对英伟达等关键公司的影响。
Vol 24h: $765 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Strong AI demand, as evidenced by TSMC's record revenue, positions Nvidia to become a significant cash-producing machine. 台积电AI需求创纪录营收，预示英伟达有望成为强大的现金生产机器。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Broader tech stock declines and scrutiny on the AI trade suggest a potential cooling of investor enthusiasm for chipmakers. 科技股下跌及AI交易受审，预示投资者对芯片股热情可能降温。
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500
#22 · Score 161

Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%? Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?

71% +15.8%

Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $6,052 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#23 · Score 157

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026? Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

97% +15.3%

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $26,883 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#24 · Score 156

Fed Hike Odds Surge, No Change Probability Dips 美联储加息预期升温，不变概率下降

62% -15.0%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

The probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting dropped by 15% to 62%, driven by increasing market expectations for a rate hike. This shift was largely influenced by hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller and mounting rate-hike bets ahead of new Chair Kevin Warsh's first decision. 2026年7月美联储会议后利率不变的概率下降了15%至62%，主要受市场对加息预期上升的推动。美联储理事沃勒的鹰派言论以及新任主席沃什首次利率决议前的加息押注增加，是此次变动的主要原因。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Fed Governor Waller's hawkish "near term" rate comments.
  • Rising market expectations for a July rate hike.
  • Anticipation of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's policy.
  • 美联储理事沃勒鹰派言论。
  • 市场对7月加息预期上升。
  • 新任主席沃什首次决策引关注。
This movement signals increased inflation concerns and potential tighter monetary policy, impacting borrowing costs and economic growth. 这一变化预示通胀担忧加剧和货币政策可能收紧，将影响借贷成本和经济增长。
Vol 24h: $1,514,129 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
🐂 AI Bull CaseAI 多头观点 Upcoming inflation data shows significant cooling, reducing pressure for a hike. 即将公布的通胀数据显著降温，减轻加息压力。
🐻 AI Bear CaseAI 空头观点 Strong economic data or continued inflation pressures force Fed Chair Warsh to hike. 经济数据强劲或通胀持续，迫使沃什主席加息。
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500
#25 · Score 154

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase July 7-13? Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase July 7-13?

0% -15.0%

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase July 7-13?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $30,049 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#26 · Score 144

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by July 31? Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by July 31?

6% -14.0%

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by July 31?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $4,420 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#27 · Score 142

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J

36% +13.8%

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

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Key Drivers核心驱动

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Vol 24h: $23,973 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#28 · Score 137

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

34% +13.3%

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $25,875 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#29 · Score 135

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202

52% +13.0%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $52,545 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
#30 · Score 124

Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13? Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13?

0% -11.9%

Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13?

Insight generation encountered an error. Raw market data shown. 洞察生成遇到错误，仅显示市场原始数据。

Key Drivers核心驱动

  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
  • Error code: 429 - {'error': {'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. Fo
Please check API keys and retry. 请检查 API 密钥后重试。
Vol 24h: $40,781 Polymarket ↗ Sources:来源： 1, 2, 3
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500
No markets in this category yet. 此分类暂无市场数据。

📚 Guide 📚 使用指南

What is PolyLens?什么是 PolyLens？

PolyLens scans Polymarket every 8 hours, finds markets with notable price movements, fetches real news, and uses AI (Gemini / GPT) to generate concise intelligence cards. PolyLens 每 8 小时扫描全球最大预测市场 Polymarket，找出价格波动显著的市场，获取相关新闽，并使用 AI 生成简测的市场歸察卡片。

Think of it as: crowd wisdom + journalist instinct + analyst writing, fully automated. 可以理解为：结体智慐 + 记者直觉 + 分析师　振写，全自动化。

Reading a Card如何读测卡片

  • Big % (e.g. 62%) — current market-implied probability of YES outcome 大数字（如 62%） — 市场隐含的“是”结果概率
  • +7.0% / −3.5% — probability change in the last 24 hours +7.0% / −3.5% — 过去 24 小时概率变化
  • Summary — 2–3 sentence AI overview of latest developments 摘要 — AI 生成的 2–3 句最新动態
  • Key Drivers — bullet points explaining why the market moved 核心驱动 — 解释市场变动原因的要点
  • Vol 24h — trading volume (higher = more liquid, more reliable) Vol 24h — 24小时交易量（越高信号越可靠）
  • Sources 1 2 3 — news articles used as AI analysis context 来源 1 2 3 — AI 分析参考的新闽文章

Categories分类说明

  • 🔥 Hot — all markets ranked by movement × volume🔥 皣门 — 全部市场，按变动×成交量益合排名
  • 🗳️ Politics — elections, policy, government🗳️ 政治 — 选举、政ách;、政府
  • 🤖 AI & Tech — AI, software, hardware🤖 AI 科技 — 人工智能、软件、硬件
  • 📈 Economy — macro, rates, trade, inflation📈 经济 — 宏观、利率、质易、通織
  • 💼 Business — companies, M&A, earnings💼 商业 — 公司、并转、责报
  • 🌍 World — geopolitics, international events🌍 国际 — 地缓政治、国际事件
  • ⚽ Sports — football, NBA, tennis, golf…⚽ 体育 — 足球、NBA、网球、高尔堠…
  • ₿ Crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi₿ 加密 — 比特币、以太坚、DeFi

Newsletter邮件订阅

Subscribe at the bottom of the page. Every 8 hours, after fresh data is generated, you receive the top 3 insights with a link back to the full site. 在页面底部订阅。每 8 小时生成新数据后，您将收到前 3 条歸察的邮件，附有完整网站链接。

🤖 API / MCP for AI Agents供 AI 调用的 API / MCP

PolyLens exposes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) endpoint so AI assistants (Claude, GPT, etc.) can read live market intelligence as a built-in tool. PolyLens 提供 Model Context Protocol (MCP) 端点，供 AI 助手（Claude、GPT 等）以工具方式读取实时市场歸察。

Endpoint: https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp 端点： https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp

Tools: 可用工具：

  • get_insights — fetch insights, filter by category + lang — 获取歸察，可按 category 和 lang 簿选
  • get_market_summary — one-paragraph current market overview — 当前市场状况的简要显述 
curl https://www.hika.fyi/api/mcp \
  -X POST -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
       "params":{"name":"get_insights",
                 "arguments":{"limit":3}}}'

Raw data: /data.json · Discovery: /.well-known/mcp.json 原始数据：/data.json · 服务发现：/.well-known/mcp.json

Data Sources数据来源

  • Polymarket — market prices, volumes, 24h changesPolymarket — 市场价格、成交量、24h 变化
  • Tavily — real-time news search with full snippetsTavily — 实时新闽搜索，含完整摘要
  • Gemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI analysis, bilingual insight generationGemini / GPT-4o-mini — AI 分析，双语歸察生成

🕑 History 🕑 历史文策

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Select a date from the list to view that snapshot.

Each snapshot includes the full AI analysis + a downloadable Markdown article. 从左侧选择日期查看该时间的快照。

ỗ个快照包含完整 AI 分析及可下载的 Markdown 文策。